2024 Online Holiday Shopping Forecast: What to Expect and Key Trends

Holiday shopping season is officially underway, with consumers eagerly on the lookout  for competitive discounts and convenient buying options. Expected shifts in consumer behavior highlight the importance of offering promotions, aligning with key shopping dates, and providing a mobile-friendly website experience. According to Adobe Digital Insights, online sales are predicted to reach record-breaking heights, with holiday spending (Nov-Dec) expected to reach $240.8 billion—an 8.4% increase from  $222.1 billion spent in 2023. Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in holiday online spending, up 7% from 2023. Let’s dive into the key trends set to shape holiday shopping in 2024.

The Social Media Influence 

Social media influencers and affiliate marketing are expected to drive major sales, as shoppers increasingly trust recommendations from online creators. This year, social media affiliates had a 10x higher conversion rate than the overall social networks marketing channel. Social media referrals are on the rise – from January to August 2024, there was a 19.7% growth in social media traffic compared to the same period in 2023, and it’s expected to peak on Black Friday. Facebook and Instagram have seen a 17.4% and 8.4% increase in referrals, respectively. While TikTok has experienced an impressive 108.9% surge in year-over-year referral traffic, making it a powerful platform for brands aiming to reach younger audiences. 

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)

Flexible purchasing options like Buy Now, Pay Later options has grown in popularity this year and is expected to set a new spending record on Cyber Monday – $993 million in a single day, up by 5.6% from Cyber Monday 2023. During the holiday shopping season, Adobe forecasts total spending to reach $18.5 billion, which is a 11.4% growth from the previous year. BNPL usage is particularly popular among younger generations, with 39% of millennials and 38% of Gen Z planning to use it. The most common reason for choosing BNPL at checkout, with 22% of respondents citing it, is to free up more cash. From January 1 to August 11 this year, 74.1% of BNPL revenue has been from purchases made on mobile devices – rather than desktops, laptops, or tablets – and that usage is expected to remain steady. 

Mobile Shopping

As consumers continue to be influenced on social media platforms and prefer using BNPL on mobile devices, it’s no surprise that mobile shopping continues to grow and is expected to overtake the revenue share this year. Adobe forecasts a record mobile revenue share of 53.2% for the holiday season, with $128.1 billion spent via mobile, a 12.8% year-over-year increase. Just over half of survey respondents, at 51% say they  prefer mobile shopping even when desktop options are available, and 82% of U.S. consumers say they use their mobile devices for in-store price comparisons. This shift reinforces the need for brands to optimize mobile shopping experiences and checkout processes.

Expected Growth By Major Shopping Categories

While deals and convenience are driving overall holiday spending, these major shopping categories are set to lead the way in year-over-year online spending growth.

• Electronics: $55.1B, +8.5% 
• Apparel: $43.9B, +5.8% 
• Furniture & Home Goods: $28.4B, +4.2% 
• Grocery: $20.8B, +8.8% 
• Cosmetics: $10.3B, +7.3% 
• Toys: $8.1B, +5.8% 
• Sporting Goods: $7.2B, +5.5% 

Conclusion

Holiday shopping in 2024 is expected to set records, influenced by a combination of social media-driven traffic, BNPL preferences, and the rise of mobile commerce. Brands that can offer competitive discounts, flexible payment options, and seamless mobile experiences, will be best positioned to capture consumer attention and drive growth. x

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